Croatia – Italy: Dismal Exit, Dismal Showing (1-1)

The Italians advance to the knockouts, but not in style. Italy crushed an unproductive Croatia in the last seconds, but behind the elation, the cracks are staring back.  

Tactical analysis and match report by Joel Parker.

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Tournament football can offer the coldest of reality checks. In this year’s ’Group of Death’, Spain played the role of executioner, now a wounded Croatia and Italy had to face each other to salvage their Euro existence.

After another impressive World Cup performance, Croatia have struggled to get their Euro campaign up from the ground. Albania held a 1-0 lead for over an hour, and even though Zlatko Dalić’s team was able to turn events around, a ninety-fifth-minute equalizer kept them stuck on a single point.

Two points away from them was Italy. Albania threw the earliest spanner, but Italy’s response saw the fluency flow once they had got into the lead. The Spaniards set the standard when the two met, Luciano Spalletti tried to find a formula in the second half, but the single goal highly flattered a poor showing from the Italians. Qualification for the knockouts required them not to lose. 

Dalić made five changes to his Croatian team, settling in a 4-3-3 formation. Marin Pongračić returned to center-back and Joško Gvardiol moved back to left-back. Josip Stanišić also came in at right-back, whilst Mario Pašalić and Luka Sučić were added to the attack. 

Spalletti also made a number of drastic changes. The first was with the formation, switching to two strikers upfront, in the form of Giacomo Raspadori and Mateo Retegui. Sacrificed from the starting eleven were Federico Chiesa, Davide Frattesi and Gianluca Scamacca, Matteo Darmian joined the backline and Giovanni Di Lorenzo pushed forward to right wing-back.

Croatia bring walking football

Such drastic changes resulted in a change of defensive shape for Italy, reverting to their competition roots with a 5-3-2 shape that allowed Croatia room on the flanks. As the ball was distributed from the center-backs into the channel, then the ballsided Italian midfielder would step up and Jorginho, the single pivot that was left free, covered his man. Italy could leave large spaces between Jorginho and either Nicolò Barella or Lorenzo Pellegrini, Croatia had the possession, but their lack of buildup ideas created a game with little quality.

Luka Sučić and Mario Pašalić are two central midfielders who were required to join the channels, although they mostly played their games in the halfspaces. This led to different positional arrangements, which were more frequent on the right side, but Croatia where easily forced back when the Italians moved up in the channel. When Marcelo Brozović was in the single pivot, Raspadori and Retegui situationally shielded the pass back inside, so Brozović continuously played inside the defensive line as a result, a situation that benefitted Italy as it encouraged the Croatians to play around them further.  

2^nd minute: Upon receiving the ball, Josip Stanišić made a third-man run, inside of Sučić that had dropped further to receive. As Pellegrini followed his run and Jorginho shifted over, following Luka Modrić, Italy had a four-versus-three defensive overload and Croatia where forced to run the ball through their deep circulation once again.

Outside of Brozović sprinting around the defensive line, taking up different positions, or both Luka Modrić and Mateo Kovačić dropping out of center-midfield to receive the ball behind the fullbacks, Croatia were stumped for ideas to flow through the Italian set-up. This created a game that had an incredibly slow tempo, Italy themselves did not engage in an aggressive press knowing how much space they left around their center-midfielders.

Andrej Kramarić attempted to stretch the Italian center-backs further, laterally moving out of the striker spot to anywhere that space was left by Spalletti’s team on the defensive line. This saw him regularly take up different positions on the left side, as Pašalić was more static in the halfspace on the left than Sučić on the right. However, Gvardiol was often deeper and his spot did not pull Giovanni Di Lorenzo, so routes to Kramarić were also blocked.

8^th minute: Marin Pongračić dribbling around Raspadori should have created a different speed in the attack. But Gvardiol and Brozović dropped as the center-back carried, routes to Kramarić or Kovačić were blocked, with neither player trying to manipulate the Italian defensive line.

Italy match the same tempo

The problem for Spalletti’s team was that they had no mechanism that directly won the ball back for them. Italy’s defense matched the Croatian tempo and they were forced back into a deeper position as a result. At least the counterpress from Croatia had dismantled the idea of Italy going into long spells of possession, for the time being. With the front three coming out from such narrow positions, the deep engagements from the Italians were forced outwards: both Sučić and Stanišić could put pressure on Federico Dimarco.

However, they started to grow into the game more and the buildup reflected what we had seen from the Italians in the first two games, just with different players situated in and around the box midfield. Di Lorenzo was now the wing-back and Raspadori was the striker that was dropping and distributing the ball. They struggled to get the ball out from Jorginho or Barella into Pellegrini or Raspadori, but Dimarco and Di Lorenzo were always in space as Croatia’s narrowness was repeated when they tried to move in a 4-2-3-1 formation off the ball.

20^th minute: The only route forward for Italy was to drop one of the attackers, in this case, Raspadori, and make a long ball towards the wing-backs, who were often in space against Croatia’s back four.

Though the Italians gained territory, the output from their attackers was really limited and trying to connect through long-distance passes is no guarantee that moves are going to flow. A wall pass from Barella back to Jorginho enabled the ball to be knocked out wide, but Retegui only squirmed through to the left of Josip Šutalo after Croatia had dealt with the initial first phase and Italy’s counterpress enabled them to put the ball towards the box, against a wider defense.

They may have been working with blunt tools in open play, but Italy, and Alessandro Bastoni, had already established that they would be a threat from set pieces. The second phase from a corner produced the best, and only notable, chance of the first half. On the edge of the box, Jorginho knocked the ball to Barella, who crossed the ball back into the area where two attackers were left completely free. Bastoni powered a header towards the goal, but Dominik Livaković pushed the ball over the crossbar.

Modrić makes most of momentum

The substitutions between Spalletti and Dalić changed the dynamics from half-time. Pellegrini was replaced by Davide Frattesi, a little less secure in possession, whereas Pašalić was replaced by striker Ante Budimir. It has been a tournament where big strikers have come to the forefront; Budimir’s contribution wouldn’t reach the impact of others, but it would establish Croatia back in control with the ball.

Partner Budimir attacked the defensive line through vertical runs, with short carries out of the defensive line becoming more frequent, and the tempo began to increase. Modrić started to drift inwards and the Italians became deeper in their half with the lines becoming more stretched.

50^th minute: Buildup to Croatia penalty. From the goal-kick, Croatia was able to quickly put huge pressure on one side and match Italy man-for-man down the channel. Bastoni made a low pass down the channel and Gvardiol pounced before Di Lorenzo could get near.

Off the ball, Gvardiol was more than comfortable jumping out of the defensive line to break up play and when Italy where pinned on that side of the field at the start of the second half, Croatian control had improved. Six minutes into the second period, Gvardiol beat Di Lorenzo to the ball and play circulated back towards the opposite flank. Brozović underlapped Stanišić, and the cross from the former Inter player nearly met Budimir’s head. That was not the end of the attack, as Kramarić collected the loose ball, cut back onto his right foot and his shot smacked Frattesi’s hand in an illegal position. A penalty to the Croatians.

In a position as tense as this one, you would turn to your legendary midfielder for guidance, but the towering frame of Gianluigi Donnarumma is one to be feared from twelve yards – especially in the Euros. Modrić was denied, but Croatia circulated the ball back after it was cleared. Sučić found Budimir from his cross and Donnarumma made a fantastic save, but resurging away from the defenders was Modrić to blast the ball into the top corner from close range. A huge goal for the Croatians.

Spalletti makes a mess

The tactical gamble had not paid off. Now Italy had slumped to third place in the group, qualification to the knockouts still likely as one of the third best teams, but having got there in miserable fashion. Spalletti’s first call was to take off Dimarco and put on Federico Chiesa, which saw Darmian switched to the left and Chiesa on the right side where he has been deployed, so far in this tournament.

Bastoni went close from another corner, but in open play, the dynamics were a lot messier in possession. Frattesi and Raspadori dropped towards the ball between situations, but Italy had no routes towards them out of their midfield and dropping out of the halfspace left Chiesa and Darmian isolated down the channels. Riccardo Calafiori started to break out more consistently up the pitch, but both Jorginho and Barella were missing that extra connection to stop the buildup from being sideways.

Up to this point, Croatia appeared more than comfortable with the ball in Italy’s court and going through in second place. In a 4-1-4-1 formation off the ball, Brozović was positioned behind Modrić in the center and stepped up when Kovačić joined Budimir in the first line to press. Now parts of the Italian buildup turned to rotations based around Calafiori and where he was going, but on the left side, Darmian could only turn the ball back inside to where it came from.

Now Raspadori was replaced by Gianluca Scamacca, an appropriate longer target, but the dynamics were still completely off. Retegui spearheaded the attack, with Scamacca dropping on the left to connect, rather than leading the charge himself. Issues had not been addressed and Croatia still forced them back without exposing themselves out of possession. In fact, Italy’s control started to drift and forced into longer engagements if they wanted to attack.

Zaccagni under the executioner’s mask

One last roll of the dice for Spalletti, Darmian and Jorginho got replaced by Mattia Zaccagni and Nicolò Fagioli. Croatia had taken off their secure ball retainers, Modrić and Kovačić, but they did hold onto the ball after this point. However, Modrić’s goal was the last shot that they had registered, and that was the way it was going to stay.

With the game creaking into added time, Dalić made a traditional but brave call. Josip Juranović was added at right-back to make a 5-3-2 formation and Croatia where willing to see the game out. Zaccagni and Chiesa got into similar routines, able to carry the ball inside but Italy struggled to form chances with Scamacca and Frattesi more concerned with joining Retegui in the center of the box, rather than connecting the dots for the ball to get near it.

Italy appeared short of answers, especially when they were giving the ball away so cheaply through long passes or missed connections in the middle. All seemed well when Gvardiol smacked the ball down the left channel and Croatia reset in their usual stance, but Calafiori, the creative outlet by this point, had other ideas. A huge gap widened between the midfielders and Frattesi arranged the launch pad for Calafiori to go on his driving runs towards the box. Juranović remained central, aware of Scamacca, but unaware of Zaccagni. From the edge of the area, with virtually the last kick of the game, Zaccagni bent the ball into the top right corner, brutally kicking the Croatians out of second place.

Takeaways

It’s nearly impossible for Croatia’s Euro journey to continue. England would need to beat Slovenia by three or more goals, Denmark would have to beat Serbia and both Portugal and Turkey would have to win their group games. Against the Italians, Croatia struggled to find balance in possession and lost their compactness the further they sat back. Nevertheless, it is still a heartbreaking way to exit.

A player from the left, shooting with his right and guiding the ball into the top corner with the last shot of the game (wonder if that’s ever happened before in Italian football history, whilst playing in Germany.) However, Del Piero’s finish secured a World Cup final; compare that to the environment around Spalletti and the health of their Euro journey is in massive jeopardy, despite their advancement.

After the game, Spalletti had practically admitted that the change of system was to appease the players, a bad message to deliver after an unsatisfying result. Switzerland will be their opponent on Saturday, a team more than capable of forcing another uncomfortable Italian performance and without a suspended Calafiori, Spalletti needs another route to rely on.

We decided to make all of our EURO 2024 articles free to read. If you want to support our work, consider taking a subscription.

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