Experienced Veterans, Emerging Stars and In-Form Players

Excitement supersedes expectation for this summer’s European Championship hosts. With Julian Nagelsmann guiding a team full of experienced veterans, emerging stars and in-form players, German football fans have real reasons to feel optimistic about their team’s chances of success on home soil. 

This tactical preview has been written by Nick Smoothy.

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Three-time winners of the tournament Germany will play host at this summer’s European Championships. In the decade since their 2014 World Cup triumph, Germany have underwhelmed on the international stage, at least by their standards. There have been two group stage eliminations in Qatar 2022 and Russia 2018 and a last 16 exit in the most recent Euros.

However, under the recent guidance of Julian Nagelsmann and with the dynamic duo of Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz in attack – not to mention the romantic prospect of Toni Kroos bowing out of his illustrious career by winning one medal that has so far eluded his bustling trophy cabinet – there is an air of optimism surrounding this perennial European football powerhouse.

Whilst Nagelsmann has only been in charge of the national team since September 2023, and will have managed just eight games prior to Euro 2024 kicking-off, back-to-back victories against France and the Netherlands in the March international window sparked fresh hope and excitement for the host nation. 

The squad and expected team
Germany boasts a squad mixed of experienced veterans, emerging stars and in-form players. There were no places, even in the preliminary 27-man squad, for the likes of Leon Goretzka, Serge Gnabry, Mats Hummels, Julian Brandt, Niklas Süle or Emre Can, demonstrating the level of depth at Nagelsmann’s disposal.

Unsere 26 für unsere Heim-EM! 🇩🇪 😍
Wir sind hyped. 🔥🔥#dfbteam #euro2024 pic.twitter.com/O5W0UOPlOk

— DFB-Team (@DFB_Team) June 8, 2024

Fans can still expect to see plenty of familiar faces in the German starting line-up though. Manuel Neuer remains the undisputed number one, Joshua Kimmich will influence play from his old-to-new again right back role, Kroos reversed his international football retirement to get back dictating in midfield, İlkay Gündoğan will utilize his game intelligence however tasked, and Kai Havertz – no longer viewed as a makeshift left back by his manager – will lead the line, in his own unique style, like he did for Arsenal this past season.

Nagelsmann has seemingly settled on his side playing a 4-2-3-1 formation, with their fullbacks providing the width. This gives license to Musiala and Wirtz to operate, and provide their star quality, from the halfspaces. Likely making up the rest of the team will be center-backs Antonio Rudiger and Jonathan Tah, and two players who look to have cemented their places under the new national team manager – VfB Stuttgart left back Maximilian Mittelstadt and Bayer Leverkusen central midfielder Robert Andrich.

vs France (March 2024) 48th minute: Germany buildup sequence which led to their second goal. Kroos dropped into the left back slot, allowing Mittelstädt to advance and link with Wirtz who was initially out wide before cutting inside to play a ball over the top for Musiala – making a depth run from the right halfspace. After controlling inside the box, Musiala rounded the goalkeeper before squaring for Havertz to make it 2-0.

Balance is the key
Nagelsmann’s record as Germany manager, at the time of writing, reads played seven, won three, drawn two and lost two. Eleven goals have been scored and nine conceded. On paper, these numbers do not immediately scream out ‘successful start’, but as already highlighted, victories, and perhaps more importantly two good performances, against France and the Netherlands this past March have peaked onlookers interest.

In both of those friendlies, Germany used a 4-2-3-1 formation. A switch from the back-three system (or use of asymmetric fullbacks when in possession at least) used in all previous four matches against Austria (2-0 defeat), Turkey (3-2 defeat), Mexico (2-2) and the USA (3-1 win).

Whether the improved performances and results can be fully attributed to the new system is up for debate. As these game also coincided with a couple of wonder goals (Wirtz vs France and Mittelstädt vs Netherlands), Kroos’ (re)introduction to the national team and Mittelstädt’s first and second caps.

When talking about newcomer Mittelstädt, Nagelsmann praised the Stuttgart left back for “…someone who works a lot, does a lot offensively and hardly makes any mistakes defensively.” And it’s Mittelstädt’s profile, combined with Kroos’ tendency to drop into the left back slot during buildup phases, that frees Wirtz to drift infield from the left wing and provide Germany with dynamism and fluidity in their forward line.

With Kimmich performing a similar role on the right wing, Musiala has equal license to release himself inside, where he can combine, interchange and generally cause havoc for opponents alongside Gündoğan, Havertz and Wirtz. This quartet have the dual attacking benefit of 1) being technically and tactically capable of creating goalscoring opportunities between them, even in congested areas, and 2) due to their centrality, and quality, they can narrow opposition defences creating space out wide for Kimmich and Mittelstädt to exploit.

vs France (March 2024) 39th minute: Germany attacking sequence. Possession was worked vertically through the thirds before moving wide left to the advancing Mittelstädt. From here, Germany intricately worked the ball from left-to-right, narrowing France’s defensive block in the process, before finding a late arriving Kimmich in space on the right to shoot at goal.

For all the upsides the aforementioned attacking foursome provide though, the obvious downside is the lack of a traditional number nine. Although this profile of striker does exist within the squad through Niclas Fullkrug. Havertz’s qualities as a false nine are without doubt, and individually, all four attackers are capable of scoring.

But, between them, they have scored a combined 36 goals across 166 caps at international level, to date. Therefore, the real tests – and question marks – around Germany, from an attacking perspective this summer will be, who will score their goals? And will they be clinical enough?

Tests and question marks also exist for Germany in the defensive phase. Although, statistically, since the turn of the year, Germany have only conceded one goal, against three competitive nations (France, Netherlands and Ukraine) and limited the two latter opponents to under nine shots and one expected goal against each.

Without the ball, Nagelsmann has been instructing his side to form a 4-4-2 shape. Across each of these games, Germany have predominantly sat in a high-to-medium block, only initiating their pressing scheme on specific triggers such as a the ball travelling backwards or out wide towards the touchline. Accepted trade-offs of this approach have included allowing (initial) space in behind and out wide.

vs Netherlands (March 2024) 35th minute: Germany out of possession sequence where their compact and organized shape collectively shuffled from one-side of the pitch to the other forcing Netherlands backwards. Their fullbacks were tasked with jumping out to close down the Netherlands wing-backs and when this happened, the rest of the back four shuffled across to cover.

When defending low, Germany have tended to protect their own third in numbers, with all ten outfield players dropping, and recovering, to help defend their box. Other recurring out of possession themes have included; cohesive organization, vertical and horizontal compactness, aggressive pressure once the ball enters inside their defensive block, and counterpressing (enabled by their rest defense structure when attacking in the final third).

A weaknesses that has been repeatedly exposed, if not punished, in 2024 has been defensive transitions. Due to Germany often using both fullbacks to attack, their backline can be left vulnerable to counterattacks, particularly when their counterpress is bypassed. There have been numerous examples of this in recent games, with one instance against Ukraine showcased below.

vs Ukraine (June 2024) 4th minute: Germany possession sequence and attacking structure. Tah’s ball loss leads to Groß and Andrich counterpressing but being beaten which leaves Tan and Anton to defend the Ukraine counterattack via Mudryk which led to two shots on their goal.

Balance will therefore be key for Germany at the Euros, both in attack and defense. As their biggest strengths can also be used against them as their biggest weaknesses.

Takeaways
As is tradition for the host nation, Germany will kick-start Euro 2024 with a game against Scotland before facing other Group A opponents Hungary and then Switzerland. Should, as anticipated, Nagelsmann’s side top their group they will face the runners-up of Group C, likely to be one of Denmark, Serbia or Slovenia, with England favourites to finish top of that quartet.

If Germany reach the quarter-finals, probably the minimum expectation for this squad, a meeting against one of Europe’s elite is a near inevitability. But there are plenty of reasons why Germany will still be highly favoured to progress further in the tournament. On the pitch, Germany have the balance of a core group of experienced players with the know-how of winning knockout football. Coupled with individual brilliance capable of deciding any tighly contested match.

Off the pitch, the hosts have the benefit of home support, with history suggesting it’s a genuine positive factor. Examples being Spain (1964), Italy (1968) and France (1984) all winning on home soil whilst Portugal (2004), France (2016) and England (2021, playing all but one of their matches at Wembley) were beaten finalists in front of their own fans.

One final consideration is the man in the dugout. In Nagelsmann, Germany arguably have one of the few managers in the competition who would very likely be a contender for many of the top jobs in European club football at the moment.

Whether the 36-year old’s tactical acumen to adapt his side to exploit and counteract different opponents and game states can translate to international (and knockout) football remains to be seen. But it is certainly another major reason as to why there is so much excitement around Germany at Euro 2024, and perhaps equally why there is not so much set expectation.

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