Real Madrid – Valencia: Valencia Attempt Second Half Comeback But Can’t Overcome Superior Madrid (2-0)
Real Madrid calmly gained an advantage over a listless Valencia side, before securing the result on the counter-attack when Valencia decided to become more proactive.
Tactical analysis and match report by Om Arvind.
Expectations for Valencia coming into the 2018/19 season were very high, given their strong fourth place finish in the previous campaign. They seemed committed to another run at the European spots after they signed Gonçalo Guedes and Michy Batshuayi to permanent deals, but severe finishing woes have prevented that from happening.
Prior to this game, they sat 13th in the table and had the third worst goal scoring record in the league, despite being in the top five for expected goals per game from open play. Their defense had not been the issue either when looking at the underlying numbers, as they had conceded the least amount of expected goals The amount of goals a team is expected to score based on the quality of the shots they take. of any team in the league.
Hence, their recent resurgence - four out of their last six matches - seemed like a classic example of regression to the mean, In any event where a certain factor of luck is involved, like football, outcomes that differ from what one would expect based on underlying statistics are not sustainable over long periods of time. When a team starts scoring or conceding goals again in a way that is more suitable to their underlying statistics, this is an example of ‘regression to the mean’, as the unexpected results do not occur any longer. giving Valencia fans hope that . . .