Southgate’s Last Chance?

Boasting one of the most talented squads at the tournament, England have the chance to end a fifty-eight year run without a trophy. Whether they are able to do this will depend on finding the right tactical set up for their world-class players to shine.

This tactical preview has been written by Josh Manley.

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England arrive in Germany as bookmakers’ favourites for this summer’s European Championship. EURO 2020 saw the Three Lions come agonizingly close to glory as they lost the final on penalties to Italy. Meanwhile, the last two World Cups have seen them reach respectable semi-final finishes.

England were perhaps slightly unlucky to exit the World Cup at the semi-final stage.

Nothing has been confirmed publicly, but rumours have swirled that this may be Gareth Southgate’s last tournament as England manager. Southgate continues to split opinion among England fans, with some fans praising the progress that has been made since Southgate took the job, and others unhappy with England’s style of play under current management.

It is true that Southgate has been strategically cautious in tournament football over the past few years, and England have not always been exhilarating to watch. Equally, it could be argued that such caution is a necessity in knockout football, and that most teams that have won tournaments at international level have exercised similarly conservative strategies.

The players

Many of the headlines around Southgate’s provisional squad announcement were focused on the excluded players, rather than the ones included. Much attention was paid to the omission of Marcus Rashford, who has had a difficult season in a struggling Manchester United side. Jordan Henderson’s exclusion was perhaps unsurprising in terms of on-pitch merit, but still noteworthy as he has been one of Southgate’s most trusted leaders in the squad over the years.

The biggest problem position for England coming into this tournament is at left back. An injured Luke Shaw is the only natural left back in the squad, and he has been selected out of hope rather than expectation of him being fit to play. If Shaw is unavailable, the responsibility for the left back position will fall on a player who is not a natural left back – most likely Kieran Trippier.

In Trippier’s preferred right back position, England are well-stocked. Kyle Walker has been a reliable part of Southgate’s defense for a long time, while Trent Alexander-Arnold serves as back-up, although is perhaps more likely to see playing time in a midfield role.

After left back, the center of defense is probably the second weakest area in the squad. John Stones is available but has recently struggled to hit the heights he reached in the first half of 2023. Harry Maguire would likely have partnered him at center-back, but did not make the final squad due to injury.  

This means that Marc Guéhi will probably start alongside Stones after a solid few years at Crystal Palace. Another option in this area of the pitch is Joe Gomez, but he has mostly deputized at fullback this season. Ezri Konsa is capable albeit without much tournament experience.  

The midfield and attack are where Southgate really faces a wealth of options. Declan Rice and Jude Bellingham will be two of England’s most important players, and the main question in midfield is around who will play alongside them.

England have long craved a highly technical, press-resistant player who can progress the ball from deep, and this season has provided a young player in this category in the form of Kobbie Mainoo. The Carrington graduate has become a key player for United and is in with a chance of doing the same for England.

A player that may stand in Mainoo’s way in starting for England is Conor Gallagher, who provides the energy and tenacity in midfield that Southgate used to rely on Henderson for. Alexander-Arnold is also an option as another technically strong player in the middle.

England are blessed with talent on the wings, with some of the Premier League’s most prolific talents in Bukayo Saka, Phil Foden, and Cole Palmer. Anthony Gordon is another prominent option on the left, while Eberechi Eze gets a deserved spot in the squad after impressing at club level.

Up front, Harry Kane will captain the side after netting 36 goals in 32 Bundesliga games this season, although he has suffered with a back problem at the end of the season. Ollie Watkins offers a different threat in behind the defense and has helped fire Aston Villa to a top four finish this season.

Tactical approach

Southgate rolled out a 3-5-2 system in World Cup 2018, and continued to use a back three at various points during EURO 2021, but has moved towards exclusively starting with a back four in the past eighteen months.

In World Cup 2022, Southgate initially started with a 4-2-3-1 shape with Bellingham alongside Rice in the double-pivot, before an uninspiring performance against the USA triggered a switch to a 4-3-3 shape in the subsequent game against Wales, in which Bellingham now had enhanced freedom to move forward.

Bellingham has had an outstanding season playing in an attacking midfield role for Real Madrid, and Southgate will look to give him similar freedom. If we do see a 4-2-3-1 shape from England this time around, it will likely be with Bellingham as number ten, and someone like Gallagher, Mainoo or Alexander-Arnold alongside Rice.

Gallagher may be a good option for situations where England want to play on the counter-attack, while the press-resistance of Mainoo or the passing range of Alexander-Arnold offer superior ball-progression, which also releases Bellingham from some build-up responsibilities and allows him to stay higher up the pitch.

The 4-2-3-1 system has been seen in England’s friendlies in the run-up to the tournament, usually with one member of the double-pivot sitting deeper, and the other slightly ahead of him, closer to the attacking midfielders.

Southgate has sometimes deployed fullbacks in more inverted roles in the past, but when using a 4-2-3-1 shape, he usually prefers to give his wingers freedom to move inside and allow the fullbacks to overlap.

In England friendly against Brazil, the 4-2-3-1 system offered freedom for the wingers to move inside.

The prospect of the likes of Saka, Bellingham and Foden having freedom to roam across the pitch as part of the attacking midfield trio promises some interesting possibilities for England. On the other hand, width may suffer slightly, as Walker on the right is used to playing a more defensive role, and there will likely be no natural left-footed left back to select.

Whichever exact structure England use, one can expect England to be stable in possession and operate a tight rest-defense. These have become consistent features for England in the past few years, and this stability has helped them advance to the latter stages of recent tournaments.

Against the ball, England are relatively flexible in terms of pressing high or sitting deep depending on the situation and game state. In both variations, they are compact and well-organized in a zonal system.

Takeaways

England have produced exceptional talent in recent years, and the national team has shown improvement on a tactical level. There are some problems for Southgate to solve in certain positions, but the raw ingredients are there for England’s stars to step up and fulfil their potential.

We decided to make all of our EURO 2024 articles free to read. If you want to support our work, consider taking a subscription.