Bolivia – Brazil: Bolivia keeps World Cup hopes alive in historic altitude win (1-0)

Bolivia needed a win and for Venezuela not to win in order to secure their playoff spot for the 2026 World Cup, but they faced the tough mission of beating Brazil, and they pulled it off. Their main ally was their new “home,” El Alto, a stadium located at more than 4000 meters above sea level.

Tactical analysis and match report by Marcus Arboés.

The Bolivian national team earned 17 out of the 20 points that gave them a playoff spot playing at the Municipal El Alto stadium, after being defeated at home in La Paz, which is at around 3600m of altitude. To achieve this, coach Oscar Villegas selected several players accustomed to these specific conditions. With that, Bolivia dominated the game without needing to rely on big names on the pitch.

Coach Oscar Villegas’ starting lineup was in a 4-3-3 formation. The experienced Lampe (Bolívar-BOL), 38 years old, was in goal. In defense: Diego Medina (CSKA Sofia-BUL) and Fernández (Akro Togliatti-RUS) were the fullbacks; Haquín (Al-Tai-SAU) and Morales (Montréal-CAN) were the center-backs. The midfield trio was formed by Ervin Vaca (Bolívar-BOL), Villamil (LDU-ECU) and Robson Matheus (Bolívar-BOL). In attack, Miguel Terceros (América Mineiro-BRA) and Paniagua (Always Ready-BOL) played on the wings with Enzo Monteiro (FK Auda-LAT) as the striker.

Brazil, already qualified under Ancelotti, used the game to test players with the sole objective of avoiding their worst campaign in World Cup qualifiers history. In a 4-2-3-1 outline, Alisson (Liverpool) in goal and Bruno Guimarães (Newcastle) were the only regular starters. Aside from them, defenders Vitinho (Botafogo), Fabrício Bruno (Cruzeiro), Alexsandro Ribeiro (Lille) and Caio Henrique (Monaco) were tested. Andrey Santos (Chelsea) and Lucas Paquetá (West Ham) formed the midfield, with Luiz Henrique (Zenit) on the right wing, Samuel Lino (Flamengo) on the left and Richarlison (Tottenham) as the number nine.

How Bolivia imposed themselves against Brazil

The script for Bolivia’s possible qualification for the World Cup playoff seemed very distant, and the opening minutes of the story came with a dose of drama. From the emotional scene of striker Enzo crying during Bolivia’s national anthem, to the news that Venezuela had scored first against Colombia, cutting off any chance of Brazil’s opponents qualifying. However, they had only one thing to do: find a way to beat Brazil.

Brazil had the first attacking initiatives, but it was clear that some players misjudged the weight of their passes and lost physical duels due to poor energy management at altitude, while even Bolivian players who play abroad showed far more aptitude for treating El Alto as their true home. From there, they managed to stay in the attacking half for longer periods.

Bolivia’s attack with right winger Miguelito moving inside to free fullback Medina to push forward, overcoming Samuel Lino. As Caio Henrique steps out to press, one of the midfielders covers the space.

Bolivia operated in a 4-3-3 shape with the fullbacks playing at different heights. From the midfield trio, Ervin Vaca and Robson Matheus stayed deeper, looking for direct long balls, switches of play, inside passes and even long-range shots. Most passes targeted Paniagua on the left wing, supported inside by Villamil and underneath by Fernández, mainly to create imbalance through dribbling.

On the right, Miguelito was the main offensive option, cutting inside from the wing, operating in tight spaces, carrying the ball, dribbling and deceiving defenders to finish or combine wide. Medina gave Samuel Lino plenty of problems, advancing to provide width on the right flank. This way, Bolivia looked to create chances through their main weapon: offensive aerial play.

That was Ancelotti’s main concern, and much of Brazil’s strategy was designed around that. Defensively, Brazil tried to avoid high-intensity efforts to manage the altitude, but most players were easily beaten in speed and 1v1 duels, with Bolivians succeeding in dribbles and supported plays.

Brazil then dropped into a 4-5-1, with Andrey Santos central in midfield and Paquetá plus Bruno Guimarães covering fullback pressing, while the wingers doubled wide. The issue was that, on the rare occasions they countered, Brazil lacked strength and attacking volume. When in possession, they rarely went vertical and instead used Paquetá to control tempo.

Brazil’s problems

For most of the first half, Bolivia managed to impose themselves and create good chances, especially through their wingers. Before winning a penalty conceded by Bruno Guimarães and converted by youngster Miguel Terceros, or Miguelito, they lost some attacking momentum on the right due to an early injury to fullback Medina.

When Brazil recovered possession, they relied on mobility and midfield combinations from Paquetá, Bruno Guimarães and Andrey Santos. The team often built through the wings, with width on the far side. The main difference, besides having an extra midfielder instead of four attackers, was having a direct striker (Richarlison) rather than a supporting forward (João Pedro).

Brazil’s relational attack with wingers Luiz Henrique and Samuel Lino staying wide, while midfielders and the near-side fullback created central overloads against Bolivia’s compact 4-3-3 defensive shape.

From their asymmetrical 4-2-3-1 formation, Brazil struggled to progress. Paquetá tried to dictate tempo in midfield, slowing play to find better options, which often ended in misplaced long balls or combinations on the right between a midfielder, Luiz Henrique and Vitinho.

To defend against Brazil’s relational attack, Bolivia kept four at the back while condensing midfielders and forwards into a 4-3-3 outline, protecting against wide combinations and forcing the game into physical battles. This played heavily in Bolivia’s favor at altitude. This is not to excuse Brazil’s poor performance, but it was the strategic scenario Bolivia chose, and it proved effective.

Bolivia in a Copa Libertadores night

The second half narrative grew more dramatic. Colombia, after a flurry of goals, took the lead. But even with Venezuela losing, Bolivia couldn’t afford to concede an equalizer. Their second-half plan was to sit deeper and play reactively with a change that anticipated Ancelotti’s moves, introducing holding midfielder Cuellar in place of Ervin Vaca. Wearing number six, he dropped even deeper when Bolivia had the ball, slotting between the center-backs to form a 5-4-1 shape.

This preempted a defensive strategy against what was coming: Brazil adopting a slightly more positional approach with changes. Marquinhos came in at right back and Raphinha on the left wing, moving inside like at Barcelona. This allowed Caio Henrique to push higher, creating a five-man front line in a 3-2-5 attacking formation with plenty of midfield mobility.

After the changes, Brazil maintained five players in the last line, using inside support to progress, but Bolivia dropped a midfielder into the defense to protect the box.

Bolivia’s coach made one final switch, bringing on striker Agarañaz for Enzo Monteiro, boosting pressing and counter-attack threat – a role Paniagua executed very well, showing technical control and speed to progress. From there, Bolivia made no further substitutions and held their lead, giving Brazil very few chances while hearing that Colombia had beaten Venezuela 6-3.

To hold on to the result, Bolivia went through some dramas that didn’t come from Brazil’s clear chances, but from the nerves and the pressure of the situation itself. That’s why several scenes, not ethically well-regarded but amusing and common in South America, added extra spice to the game’s story: players faking injuries to waste time, ball boys hiding balls or handing them to fans to throw back onto the pitch, and much more. Like a crazy Copa Libertadores night!

Takeaways

With the exception of the backup goalkeepers and Andreas Pereira, Ancelotti tested every available player by making a final substitution to bring on Jean Lucas, Bahia’s midfielder. However, those tested at altitude had little luck. Caio Henrique struggled, while Fabrício Bruno, Samuel Lino and Vitinho underperformed. Of the whole team, only Paquetá and Alisson would earn positive marks.

It didn’t make big headlines, but this was Brazil’s worst World Cup qualifying campaign ever. Under the old format, Brazil would be heading to the playoff, showing just how strange, inconsistent and poor this cycle has been under Carlo Ancelotti, who now faces the challenge of restoring the team’s confidence and identity.

On the other hand, Bolivia achieved a historic and unexpected qualification against all predictions, defeating a giant and far more talented team. But this was only the first of many finals they will need to win, since the playoff is now tougher. While Brazil will play friendlies against Korea and Japan in October, Bolivia has a match against Russia and awaits further results from other continents.