A Magnifying Look Into Manchester City’s Crisis

It’s problems all over the board for Manchester City. One win in over two months is unprecedented for the blue side of the city in recent times, yet the struggles seem never-ending. So, what has gloriously gone wrong in the Guardiola camp?

Tactical analysis and match report by Rahul Madhavan.

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It’s not unusual to see Manchester City suffer a rough patch before they inevitably bounce back and succeed by the time May arrives. However, in Pep Guardiola’s eight-year tenure, this particular patch feels markedly different, in the least because his supposed solutions appear to be consistently falling short.

The statistics lay bare the struggles. Just one win in 13 games, their last away victory dating back to mid-October, while they currently sit at the bottom of the form table over the last eight matches. These are certainly staggering figures.

These issues, however, are just the tip of the iceberg. Beneath the surface lies a deeper set of tactical challenges – an outlier compared to the dominance that has defined Manchester City over the past decade.

The Warning Signs

It’s not as if Guardiola and the players suddenly woke up one day and decided to underperform. The warning signs were evident even last season. It was certainly clear that City’s core group – responsible for winning six of the last seven Premier League titles – was approaching the end of its peak. Their decline is further amplified by Guardiola’s preference for operating with a small squad, even when his team averaged 60 matches per season.

Compounding this are the persistent injuries to Kevin De Bruyne, John Stones, and other key players in recent years; and instead of gradually phasing out aging players, the club has now left itself with significant rebuilding work to complete in a short span of time.

Some of the problems City have faced in 2024 could be classified as clear ‘orange alert’. By November, they had already conceded 37 big chances this season, a trend that has steadily worsened over the past three years. Last season, they conceded 60 big chances, and in the 2022-23 campaign, they allowed 49 – eight more than in the 2021-22 season. 

Rodri’s absence has, of course, been a major factor in this. His qualities on-the-ball are well-documented – City sorely miss his composure, his trademark diagonal switches, and the line-breaking passes, which were instrumental in Phil Foden’s performances last season.

While they have technically gifted players to partially mask this void, the real problem emerges in the out-of-possession phase. Rodri is not just a crucial cog in City’s counter-press; his physicality, ability to cover ground, win duels, and intercept passes seem irreplaceable. But even with Rodri on the pitch, cracks were evident. Manchester United exploited these weaknesses with ease in the FA Cup final.

Minute 34: The build-up to United’s second goal. With Mateo Kovačić positioned deeper, Rodri shifted left to support the attack, targeting the space on that side. Although City created a half-chance, United regained possession and launched a counter-attack. Kovačić was late to challenge Fernandes, allowing the Portuguese to turn and find Mainoo, who surged forward unmarked.

Just 10 seconds later, Mainoo covered the entire pitch to score United’s second goal. Theoretically, City had their back four and Kovačić in a rest-defense setup against United’s front three. However, the problem lay in their inability to cover ground and their rather poor defensive positioning when facing transitions.

Rashford, after receiving a pass from Mainoo, switches play to Garnacho. However, the real issue lies in City leaving their midfield completely exposed. Kovačić failed to track Fernandes’ run, while Walker was occupied marking Rashford, allowing Mainoo to exploit the space. Eventually, Wan-Bissaka’s run drew Aké, leaving Garnacho with a straightforward cut-back to Fernandes, who then set up Mainoo for the finish.

While injuries have exacerbated the problems, Manchester City, at least on paper, still possess a squad capable of competing with the league’s frontrunners. However, winning once in the past two months is a scenario even the most pessimistic of supporters could not have anticipated. 

Shadow of their former self

Just a couple of years ago, Manchester City’s out-of-possession structure was arguably the best in the league. Pep Guardiola’s evolution of the press – where the wingers executed angled runs to close down the center-backs in possession – effectively forced the opposition to play through the middle. In these central areas, City maintained a compact shape and showed exceptional aggression when pushing forward to regain possession.

Manchester City vs RB Leipzig, March 2023. A look into City’s press. When Gvardiol receives the ball, Silva makes a curved run while closing him down to block the passing lane to Raum. If Stones moves wider to mark Raum, City shift across to one side, with Rodri on Szoboszlai and Gündoğan on Forsberg. This structure also makes sure that City have a two-versus-one advantage at the back. 

For this system to succeed, it requires clarity and proper execution, especially given City’s reliance on a hybrid pressing structure. Crucially, players must shift quickly across the pitch, effectively dividing it in half and restrict the options for the opponent.

However, with Rodri sidelined, City not only lack the legs to maintain consistent pressure but also seem to struggle with reading situations and timing their press effectively. Whether it’s due to a lack of communication, unclear roles, or other factors, opponents now appear to be finding greater success in exploiting these situations. Just take City’s recent game against Aston Villa for example.

Minute 50: As Rogers passes back to Torres, Bernardo Silva initiates the press with a curved run to block the passing lane to Digne. City’s midfielders stay man-mark Villa’s players, but Villa has an extra man in Youri Tielemans floating between the lines. A simple lobbed pass finds the Belgian, instantly put Villa in a three-versus-three situation against City’s retreating backline.

What City needed here was for either Akanji or Gvardiol to step up and close down Tielemans. The hesitation, however, can be traced back to a similar incident in the first half, which led to Aston Villa’s opening goal. On that occasion, Emiliano Martínez spotted Tielemans’ movement into space in midfield. John Stones reacted marginally late, allowing Tielemans to receive the ball, turn, and find Rogers, who had escaped Kovačić’s attention. Rogers then broke through on goal and squared the ball for Jhon Duran to finish.

But City’s struggles in these scenarios stem from their inability to execute lateral shifts and divide the pitch into half. Ideally, they would have liked a man advantage at the back (like the game against RB Leipzig above). However, the lack of coordination in the press was glaring. The issues certainly suggest City are either lacking confidence or, more alarmingly, losing the physical sharpness required to maintain their intensity.

Recurring patterns

Many have often pointed out how Guardiola’s men are vulnerable to being bypassed during high pressing situations and transitions. This issue is particularly evident on both flanks, but the left side has been repeatedly pinpointed as a weak spot.

Joško Gvardiol has been a huge attacking asset for City in 2024, playing as a high and wide full-back or operating near the edge of the box. He has excelled at utilizing the space created when City’s wingers are double-marked.

However, this attacking contribution has come at a cost. With more teams sitting deep and inviting City to commit players forward, Gvardiol’s advanced positioning has left the flank exposed. He has struggled to recover quickly, and wingers often get the better of him in one-versus-one situations. While his pros outweighed the cons last season, this year tells a different story.

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Two main factors have resulted in this problem. First, Rodri’s absence, combined with Kovačić and Gündoğan’s inability to screen the space or track runners, has left City more vulnerable. Second, the lack of a natural left center-back to provide cover. Nathan Aké, the ideal option, has played just five games this season, while Ruben Dias has struggled with injuries as well.

Additionally, there’s also the issue of City being exposed on the left side during high-pressing scenarios. Mauricio Pochettino’s Chelsea exploited this very effectively last season. With the wingers jumping on the center-backs, Chelsea would start their build up on the right, drawing City’s press, before executing quick passes to bypass it. This frequently created scenarios where City’s defense was outnumbered at the back. Similar situations have been observed this season as well, often leading to big chances for the opposition.

Wolves vs Manchester City. City’s midfield press aggressively to reduce time in possession. But once Wolves move the ball to the right side, Doku is late to commit to the press, allowing Bueno to dribble past him and find the free-man Semedo. Suddenly, with the midfield drawn forward, City find themselves in a three-versus-three situation at the back – with Lewis tracking Aït-Nouri’s run, Semedo’s cross finds Larsen, who has a simple tap-in.

On the right side, the issues are entirely different. Guardiola has leaned heavily on the left flank to create overloads and initiate attacks, utilizing Gvardiol’s attacking instincts and Doku’s one-versus-one ability. This focus has inadvertently opened up opportunities to exploit City’s right side on the break. Both Kyle Walker and Rico Lewis have failed to consistently win duels, while Rodri’s absence has further exposed City by weakening their ability to limit transitions.

This vulnerability was particularly evident during City’s early run of defeats. The likes of Adama Traoré, Antoine Semenyo, Kenan Yıldız, and Morgan Rogers, all operating from the left and excelling in ball-carrying, thrived against City. Ultimately, the issues stem from individual players’ poor decision making.

The common suggestion has been to switch to a medium-block. Guardiola has, in fact, tried this approach on occasion, but it hasn’t delivered the results. In recent games, City’s wingers appear to limit their jumps on the opposition center-backs, with midfielders often stepping up instead.

However, teams are now content to commit numbers forward against a City side that seems entirely lacking in confidence. For example, in their game against Brighton & Hove Albion, City started in what appeared to be a 4-3-2-1 shape out of possession and seemed to have control of the game in the first half.

However, as Fabian Hürzeler committed more players forward against City’s medium-block paired with a relatively high line, Brighton found joy with ease.

Manchester City vs Brighton. Minute 51: Hürzeler shifted Brighton from their traditional 4-2-2-2 shape to a more aggressive 4-3-3 structure with a lone defensive midfielder. With City’s wingers holding deeper positions, the responsibility to press the center-backs shifted to the midfielders. When Gündoğan stepped up, Rutter exploited the space by positioning himself between the lines. Gvardiol failed to step up, leaving Rutter with acres of space to turn and switch the play, where Brighton had a three-versus-two advantage.

Managers are increasingly content to allow their forwards to stay higher up the pitch, largely because City’s transition threat has diminished. But this also is a direct result of Guardiola’s reluctance to allow games to become end-to-end affairs, given the team’s struggles in defending counter-attacks.

The result? City’s troubles out of possession have certainly become a recurring theme. Despite Guardiola’s attempts to address these issues, the current squad, hampered by several injuries, lacks the balance needed to counter the ever-improving standards of the Premier League.

Domino effect in possession

Guardiola’s out-of-possession setup serves as the foundation for their success in possession. With that foundation unsettled, their confidence and decision-making on the ball have noticeably declined. In his own words:

“Our strength is the ball. Our strength in these past eight or nine years of success is we run like a desperate team when we don’t have the ball and with the ball, we are incredibly patient. Now we are in a moment when we do a lot of things not in the right tempo, we lose the balls and after we concede a lot of transitions. After that, any team is better than us.”

This season, the Spanish manager has frequently used Rico Lewis as a tactical weapon. City have predominantly operated with a 3-1 shape in the first line, with Lewis given the freedom to push into the second line and overload the center. However, as transitions have increasingly led to big chances, what was initially seen as a strength has turned into a glaring weakness.

To address the transition threat, Guardiola has reverted to a 3-2-2-3 shape at times, which helps City maintain possession for longer stretches. But this in turn has made them more predictable.

Opponents have countered with compact structures and high lines to block central progression; and when City are forced to move the ball wide, they have lacked quality decision-makers in those areas. Slow build-ups and repetitive patterns have become the norm, and even in one-versus-one situations out wide, the final pass has often lacked quality.

Manchester City vs. Juventus, Minute 17: Juventus implemented a simple but effective structure to frustrate City. They denied space to City’s midfielders in the half-spaces with a man-marking approach. This left Doku as the only outlet on the flank, but Savona stayed touch-tight to him because no players attacked the space between Juventus’ center-back and full-back.

Recognizing this problem in the first half, Guardiola instructed Gündoğan, the defensive midfielder, to make runs into the vacated spaces. While this adjustment created opportunities, it also exposed City’s poor rest-defense structure. In the first half, where City dominated possession, Juventus managed only one shot on goal. However, as Guardiola opted to take more risks, Juve’s shot tally rose to seven in the second half, with five on target, while City simply failed to take their chances.

Adding to these issues, City’s technical flooring, arguably their greatest strength, seems to have declined as well. They have frequently lost possession in midfield, where their usually reliable players are now giving the ball away in dangerous areas. Combined with their struggles in defending transitions, a lack of strong box defenders, and poor decision making in attacking areas, it seems that everything that could go wrong has gone wrong.

Takeaways

Manchester City are undoubtedly in a crisis – 7th in the Premier League in December and 22nd in the newly formed Champions League table. Many of their challenges arise from injury woes and a loss of confidence, leading to players second-guessing their decisions on the pitch.

While a squad overhaul may be the possible long-term solution, Guardiola has suggested that improvement can only arrive when the injured players return. Until then, the uncertainty is likely to persist, potentially affecting their results further.