Manchester City: The All Blacks of Football
Passing midfield trios and possession dominance is not the only method of Pep Guardiola’s madness. To achieve success, Manchester City have built the most physical team under his reign, so can we look to a physically-dominating sport – with predetermined cues and moves in between – to take this a step further?
Written by Joel Parker.
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Against a narrow 4-2-3-1 press, Bayern Munich had the profiles in transition that could threaten Manchester City. However, moving them to one side to isolate the other was not only the key to relieving pressure in their defensive third, but key to unlocking attacks too. It is a ritual that Guardiola has always associated himself with, to overload one side in order to create space on the other: and in many team sports, this method can also be applied. Football tactics go around in cycles, but can they be influenced by different team sports entirely?
We have already seen football data be influenced by ice hockey and basketball, games that can relate to football’s fluid premise. Even at his time at Barcelona, Pep Guardiola hired water polo legend Manuel Estiarte to be part of his coaching staff, a role that he has partaken next to Pep at both Bayern and Man City. Influencing the structure of football is where things are more difficult, but we can draw inspiration from a sport that also started on British soil.
Rugby is a close-contact sport. With more tackles and breakdowns in play, rugby usually works at a slower pace, but it’s the rules that create the huge difference. There are more players on the field, anyone can handle the egg-shaped ball and score from any area past the goal line (not just between the posts) whilst passes through the hands must be backwards towards a deeper receiver. But observe Japan’s last-minute winner over South Africa, in the 2015 World Cup, and think of the aims of the team in possession.
— #14 (@14nl_) April 25, 2023
There are players overloading around the ball to secure it, a dummy run which draws space and keeps the opposition from pressing up directly to the next receiver. Then you have the handoff and step outside from Amanaki Mafi, which created the overload on the wing.
Even between the very different dynamics of rugby and football, we constantly see teams overload to isolate the opposite channel. How this relates to the way Manchester City have been avoiding the opposition press and manipulating a deeper block comes slightly differently. How they funnel the ball outwards to Nathan Aké and Manuel Akanji is not reminiscent of how Atalanta or Sheffield United executed overlapping center-backs, and similar to the way a rugby team directly moves the ball outwards to the winger, ready to charge through the opposition.
The setup
A rugby team is split between two packs within the squad: forwards and backs. The forwards win your games because they support the ball-carrier and duel for its possession in scrums or lineouts. The backs determine how much you win, players with more agility and coordinated attacks lead to more of the tries being scored by those within these positions.
Much like the dynamics in football, rugby can also maintain long sequences in possession, with all players collectively working towards goal. Forwards tend to be a lot closer to the ball because they have to provide coverage when a teammate is tackled. The backs offer the width and hit opponents with more rehearsed passing moves, as opposed to forwards who do not have the same space and have to work with brute force to get through.
With these elements, it’s not uncommon to see a large number of players within the area of the ball and the rest of the team spread out vertically. Not all forwards would be committed directly to the breakdown but can be within its perimeter, ready to be the next receiver. Observe this excellent Stade Toulousain try and take note of the body movements that keep the defense away and drag them towards one another.
Comme un symbole!! Thomas Ramos entre les perches!! 🏉🏉#ChampionsCup pic.twitter.com/MiImkTxu9y
— Champions Cup France (@ChampionsCup_FR) April 8, 2023
Deliberately, keeping the ball in one area forces the hand of the opposition, having to commit to preventing being overloaded and gaps from being exploited. Similar behaviours offer a exchange in ideas: we know their a many layers to team sports, but the objective of the team is the same both from a rugby and football perspective.
Both teams want to progress the ball up the pitch. Both can force an opponent to bunch around the area of the ball, in order to draw space on the outside. Both can disrupt the impact of an opponents’ press with a particular movement and/or pass that evades such pressure. We are quick to draw similarites between coaches in football and how they emulate one another – perhaps no one as much as Pep Guardiola because of how adaptable he has been as a coach. When we observe the way his City team establishes themselves around the ball, we can see these behavioural patterns translate, regardless of the shape of the ball on either rectangular pitch.
Their set-up suggests that their forming of an overload is more intentional than others. This is because the split between the center-backs has Aké and Rúben Dias positioned on the left of Ederson in goal, with Akanji on the right by himself. This intends to include Ederson when City circulate the ball in their third of the field, but the tilt of the center-backs leads to the opposition’s defensive block moving towards one side.
17th minute vs Southampton: City’s 3-2-5 shape tilts Southampton’s 4-4-2 shape onto one side of the field.
Ahead of the back three is the double pivot of Rodri and John Stones. On paper, this appears a pretty defensive City selection, but it’s their protection and adaptation that sets up the wide center-backs to become much more aggressive in the wider channel. Rodri is the more likely to drop into the first line of buildup, not only does this make the job of an opposition press even harder – against a flat back four – but enables City to reroute and change the direction of the buildup.
Though different sports entirely, the aims are two sides of the same coin. Think of City’s left side as the forwards, able to make progress but with Dias, Aké, Jack Grealish and İlkay Gündoğan positioned on this side, but with more emphasis on control and protection. This draws the opposition and makes space for Akanji to feed a right side of Kevin de Bruyne and Riyad Mahrez or Bernardo Silva, to hit the opposition with more pace and directness towards the goal.
3rd minute vs Bayern: City build down the left side as Bayern maintain two players on Haaland. Opposition shift towards this channel, but Stones maintained his deep but wide position, which isolated Sané.
The execution
In the attack, rugby teams are always vertical behind the ball. The rules of the sport dictate this method for a variety of reasons; it keeps the distance between the opposition, creates the time to trigger a pattern or movement and decreases the chance of a turnover and forces the entire game on its head. This is where people can view rugby as pretty one-dimensional, which is why the speed of this movement is pivotal in such a territorial sport.
It is crucial in a much more territorial sport for the tempo to build to gain territory. Teams are drilled to run the ball down the line to try and exploit that space that tilting or breakdowns offer. Check out the support that France have in this try that they scored against England, followed by the quick hands the help evade pressure.
A training ground dream of a try#ANGFRA #ENGvFRA pic.twitter.com/KntsmhKS04
— EK Rugby Analysis (@ek_rugby) March 11, 2023
There are multiple methods that you can attack in rugby. You can hit the winger straight away, with a long crossfield kick (as long as the winger is behind the kicker in the process) but well-coordinated movements and dummies can be so effective in creating space. In this move, two players make hard runs, ready to receive, but the pass goes behind them. City could switch the ball straight away to Akanji at times, but move the ball through the midfield and you can still delay the opposition from shifting over entirely.
What can make City’s pass from the left to Akanji so interesting is the position the Swiss defender can receive at times. Take the move against Bayern for instance. As Grealish moved deeper on the ball, he had the support of Rodri and Aké, as well as four Bayern players surrounding this channel. On the far side, John Stones kept his position on the same line, which kept Leroy Sané from being attached to his teammates pressing. Often the wide center-back in a three would have come more narrow in circulation, but Akanji can keep wide and charge forward.
3rd minute vs Bayern: Pass moves back towards Stones, with Bayern players overloaded on one side. Akanji makes his run and Stones moves the ball into the channel to push the opposition’s defense deeper.
This is the advantage football has, we can pass the ball forward with the receiver ahead of us. Yet this is a tactical move that feels and looks unique to City; Akanji isn’t performing an overlapping fullback role, because he still defends and has phases on the ball as a narrow center-back. When Atalanta and Sheffield United overlapped their center-backs, it came with the security of those players moving ahead of the ball in the middle third, with wingbacks and center-midfielders in proximity to support and shorter ball circulation, so if possession was turned over it were those players who could still be in a position to recover.
Akanji manoeuvres in a way that looks more aggressive and comes from a deeper area of the field. His run is hugely beneficial to City because it’s another way of attracting more pressure for space to open inside. Against a narrow opposition high block, this is quite significant because Akanji can already evade the first line of pressure at pace. This can force a reaction out of those deeper in the defensive arrangement and open up the halfspace for Kevin de Bruyne to flex his transitional muscles.
51st minute vs RB Leipzig: Akanji makes his run from deep. Movement from Stones kept Konrad Laimer close for the extra couple of steps. As Akanji makes ground, it forced a reaction from one of the Leipzig defenders and Kevin Kampl is the one to move over, which left De Bruyne free in the middle.
The evolution
What gives rugby a unique flavor is the magnifying glass looks closer at its micro-movements. The slightest step, overlap, dummy or decoy can be the big difference between another tackle from the opposition or yards being gained and defenses unravelling. In a sport that has a very distinct and common pattern of play, it’s understandable that pundits hone in on these dynamics; in football, these same methods can be lost in their fluidity or subjectivity.
We have established that City can get the ball to Akanji like a pass out wide to a rugby winger, baring down on the try line, but can we look to rugby to turn this into chance creation? The City side is already recognised as being more direct and the most physically dominant Guardiola team that he has established.
One of the most effective passes in the City attack is their ability to get the ball back inside from their wingers. Guardiola likes his wingers to control and be reliable in possession, whilst stretching the opposition with their pinning. Grealish and Mahrez embody this, with stronger feet inside to make the field more open and enable more options to eventually hit Erling Haaland at the back post. From a rugby perspective, working the ball back inside is very important. The closer your try is to the posts, the closer your conversion can be taken (a chance to score more points) and the less chance that the opponent uses the sideline to stop your move.
The problem we have is from a rugby perspective, the movement always has to come from behind the ball carrier and a defense in rugby doesn’t have the ability of an offside line that can stop such moves. So when a pass is made, it must be hit with the same intensity. Explosive movement is a key component for breaking through defensive lines, and we can certainly relate this to a certain striker in City’s frontline.
4th minute vs Southampton: Buildup to Grealish chance. An explosive run from Haaland draws a large amount of space towards the left side of City’s attack. Could Man City get into these situations with Akanji the player higher up, and with the extra ball-sided attacker making a run?
What makes De Bruyne and Gündoğan interesting, is that when the build has been produced on their side, they would move outwards to pull space centrally. We have already seen Haaland make such explosive movements, but imagine the transition-like ability to find Haaland charging behind a high line after dummy runs from the eights to draw space and Akanji the passer, having drawn in the opponent. Even in the most physically dominant of sports, such manoeuvres can overpower the opposition.
Best moment of the game so far as a clever Italian move puts Ignacio Brex over for the try.
— EK Rugby Analysis (@ek_rugby) March 11, 2023
Ironically a very similar move to one Wales ran in November to score a try.#ITAvWAL #SixNations pic.twitter.com/gWRFK2zv7v
Takeaways
Looking at these elements, it all counteracts one important Guardiola component: control. The reason why City is comfortable without the high midfield exchanges and the fluid movement of forwards boils down to the fact they have a pressing scheme, that Pep knows he can still control the opposition. Direct balls, from a narrow center-back to a charging forward, behind the last line, do not reflect control. But could you ever predict how Guardiola is going to arrange his team next?
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